GP Short Notes

GP Short Notes # 598, 28 November 2021

From the US to China: Releasing the strategic oil reserves
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan

What happened? 
On 23 November, the US President announced the release of 50 million barrels of oil from the "Strategic Petroleum Reserve" to counter the rising oil prices. India announced to release 5 million barrels of crude oil from its reserves with China, Japan, South Korea and the UK. The US would release 32 million barrels as an exchange over the months, which would eventually return to the reserves. While only 18 million barrels will be sold, this sale was approved by Congress in 2018 under the Bipartisan Budget Act. 

On 24 November, China stated that it would release strategic crude oil depending on its actual needs. This would be the second time in two months that China has released its strategic reserves. The UK Government had authorised the release of 1.5 million barrels of strategic reserves to ease pressure on oil prices and mentioned that they would work closely with the US to support the global economy during the pandemic. The OPEC+ coalition, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, are considering pausing their effort of increased production of "400,000 barrels a day until they hit pre-pandemic levels of production". 

What is the background?
First, the strategic oil reserves, and their release in the recent decades. The idea of strategic oil reserves was introduced after 1973 when the OPEC countries had imposed an embargo concerning the US's support of Israel. The US strategically released oil "For Operational sale" for the first time in 1991 during Operation Desert Storm. The second time was in 2005 during Hurricane Katrina and the last time was in 2011 due to the civil war in Libya. 

Second, the 2011 and the 2021 releases. The difference between the two periods is how the US releases oil without an immediate emergency. In 2011 there was an urgent need for countries to step in as Libya was not supplying oil to Europe, its predominant importer of crude oil. So, the US and other countries compensated by releasing their strategic oil reserves to meet the demands. In 2011, the Obama administration's oil reserve release was managed by the International Energy Agency (IEA). While now, it is spearheaded by Biden, who has been coordinating with other countries to reduce the global prices of oil.

Third, the OPEC response. Biden had approached the OPEC countries to rapidly increase their production to bridge the gap in supply and demand. But, the OPEC countries declined, as they were already on a plan to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day till they reached pre-pandemic levels of production. Another reason was the pandemic and the disruptions faced by the OPEC countries in 2020, which led to them downsizing their oil production as the demand fell to an all-time low. 
Besides, the 23 nation OPEC+ coalition has planned to meet on 1 and 2 December to decide if they would have to pause their increase in production in January 2022 to tackle the sudden release of strategic oil reserves. 

What does it mean?
First, volatile oil prices, as there has been a rapid rise and fall in the price of oil before and after the announcement. Second, the importance of strategic oil reserves during emergencies will be rethought as a medium to counter oil politics globally. Third, the world will reconsider its global shift to cleaner renewable energy sources with the surging demand and not enough time to meet those requirements. Fourth, the upcoming OPEC meeting would be a game-changer as it would either make or break the oil prices.

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